Does the currency of the future have a future?

Bitcoin’s success has been remarkable. Its most important characteristic, and what makes it different from money (USD or GBP for example), is that it is decentralized. No single institution controls the Bitcoin network. This puts some people at ease – as it means banks and government have no control over their money. Bitcoin is the Rocky Balboa of economics. During the start-up, one Bitcoin was valued around $35; now, it soars anywhere between $5000 to $6000 dollars. This being said, Bitcoin is incredibly volatile. Prices rise and dip considerably month to month, and sometimes day to day. In this week’s article, we will take a look at how bitcoin works, and see what experts predict of its future prosperity. Let’s see if Bitcoin can go the distance.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency monitored by a ledger. The ledger is available to be downloaded by anyone, and with it, you can see every account and every transaction ever made. If I want to buy a sofa from you and pay you 0.5 bitcoins, then the coins will go from my e-wallet to your e-wallet and this will be marked onto the ledger. This is available for everyone to see. Simple.

Although all records of transaction are in the public domain, each user remains anonymous. Transactions and accounts (E-wallets) are tracked by a number, and not a name. It would be impossible to trace an account to a person using the ledger alone. Although anyone can check the ledger, they cannot use it to link a transaction to an individual. But this anonymity comes at a price.

As all accounts on the ledger are mathematically coded, the ledger needs constant work to be kept up to date with pending transactions. When you pass money to someone, it creates a key which creates an e-signature from your personal wallet code and the recipients’. This mathematical key is unique and cannot be replicated.

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When you make a sale, everyone in the world’s ledger is updated with this new transaction, and everyone can match this transaction against the ledger. This keep Bitcoin secure.

Mathematicians will link pending transactions to past transactions, this way, everyone’s ledger agrees. Coincidentally, this is how Bitcoins are distributed to people. Someone links a transaction onto past transactions and is paid in Bitcoins. This allows for Bitcoin to be self-sufficient, and have no centralized authority, like the federal reserve to the dollar. This process is called data mining. In turn, no one can print money and Bitcoin is distributed by the system for updating the ledger. Bitcoin is safeguard by everyone, for everyone; and any person who owns a Bitcoin is a part of the Bank of Bitcoin.

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It sure is interesting to see how it works; and, even though it can be daunting understanding it at first – Bitcoin is a simple concept. The founder stated that once understood, it makes much more sense than centralized currency as it is maths. But how does it compare to hard currencies? And does it have a future in the way the world works?

Goldman Sachs made its position clear, they believe “gold wins out over cryptocurrencies in most of the key characteristics of money.” They compared the two in terms of durability, sustainability, intrinsic value, and unit of account. On the other hand, cryptocurrencies take up significantly less space – but new alternatives are being created every day. There is no competition when it comes to the value of gold, but there is to the bitcoin. Goldman rounds of their statement by pointing out that Bitcoin is dangerously volatile. The Bitcoin-to-U.S. dollar volatility on average was nearly 7 times that of gold this year (2017).

Frustratingly, there is not enough evidence to come to any conclusion as to how Bitcoin will do in the future. But the central question we need to bear in mind isn’t whether or not Bitcoin is a fad or has staying power, its whether Bitcoin has the potential to be the new gold. Whilst commentaries from Goldman’s state it does not, it is worth mentioning that they are in the process of building their own tech to help decrypt and data mine. This indicates that despite their comments, they still have some faith in the “currency of the future.”

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Henry James and James O’Leary do not hold any stake in Bitcoin.

 

 

 

Post-Election Economic Activity

The results of the UK general election on June 8th have left many factors in a state of uncertainty in Britain. The country has been left with a hung parliament, with the Conservatives only securing 318 seats of the 326 they needed to win a majority. This political result has had effects, both positive and negative, on areas of the economy and investment markets.

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Previous trends have shown that, when there is anticipated disturbance in the political sector, investments in commodities such as gold increase as people try to hedge their bets against economic losses. In the run up to the election, there was increase of 64% in people investing in gold for the first time, while numbers of financial professionals buying physical gold were up 49% in the week leading up to the vote.

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Following the announcement of a narrow Conservative win the sterling experienced a sudden drop of 2% in value against the dollar to $1.2683, its lowest level in two months though it regained a little ground back up to $1.27 on Friday the 9th. It is predicted that sterling will continue to experience some level of volatility in the short term.

While the election results have hit some areas of the economy negatively, others are thriving after the news. The FTSE 100 ended on the 8th of June up 1%, while the Stoxx Europe 600 experienced an increase of 0.3%. Global businesses, such as Diageo, Reckitt Benkiser, and Unilever also observed upward movement, all trading at around 1.5% higher by the 9th. Increased value of shares of exporting companies, which make up three quarters of the FTSE 100, are expected to do better as the weakened currency is likely to rise income earned abroad.

The narrowness of the Conservative win will have an impact on how the upcoming Brexit negotiations are carried out as well. Theresa May gambled the Conservative status as the ruling party in the hope of gaining an even stronger position in the negotiations however, this has backfired with no party having an overall majority in the UK parliament. The weakened Conservative position means that a more lenient Brexit deal may be agreed on as opposed to the “hard” Brexit that May hoped for, with no trade deal.

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As the Conservative party enters into discussions with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) about a possible coalition, economic uncertainty may continue. This coalition would see the DUP adding their 10 parliamentary seats to the Conservative seats, giving the party the majority it needs to pass legislation, and gain a stronger hold over the Brexit negotiations.