From the outside, the purported Russian chemical attack in Salisbury, England is reminiscent of your favourite spy novel – one by John Le Carré, perhaps. The story might go a bit like this: a former Russian intelligence officer living in exile, enjoying lunch with his daughter at a popular local Italian restaurant, only to be found left for dead on a nearby park bench alongside a range of questions like How? Why? And Who? Unfortunately, this compelling drama isn’t a novel but real life, and as British-Russian relations tumble to a post-Cold War low as a result, how will this ordeal impact these two great nations’ economies?
By of the end of March 2018, over 200 diplomats have already been expelled from over 20 countries in Europe, Australasia, and North America in solidarity with the UK against Russia’s alleged aggression. NATO has further removed 7 diplomats from their alliance. Since the attack, Russia has haemorrhaged political influence as countries turn their back on them to condemn their aggressive behaviour. The question on everyone’s mind is, could this soon escalate and become a financial Cold War?
The London property market and UK banks have long been known to shelter the money of Russian oligarchs. British Prime Minister Theresa May and her government are in the process of deciding whether they should clamp down on these assets and impose a ban on the City of London from helping Russia sell its sovereign debt, a process which props up their economy. It would certainly send a strong message to Moscow that Britain is still a strong international actor – even during the instability she faces during Brexit negotiations.
Were the British Prime Minister to take this drastic action it is reasonable to expect that Vladimir Putin’s Russia would respond in equally robust terms. In our hyper-globalized world, it should come as no surprise that Russia has influence over socio-political conditions in Britain. The UK’s National Grid has been using Russian natural gas reserves to help keep up with demand for years; in 2015 nearly 10% of the UK’s consumption came from Russia. Although the winter is nearly over, and natural resources may not be important during the summer months, winter always returns, and there is the risk that next year Britain may struggle turning on the central heating.
The question remains: are economic sanctions and restrictions worth bearing the socio-political ramifications of a stand-off? That remains to be decided. For now, the world waits to see both May and Putin’s next moves.
DISCLAIMER: This message is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities. Past investment performance may not be indicative of future investment performance.