In last month’s market commentary we indicated that the global economy was beginning to rebound nicely and that we expected that the communications, technology, software and pharmaceutical industries to drive the markets upward and catalyze a global rebound. While this has been true, there is one item we missed: the spark of growth facilitated by the humble and inexplicably polemical facemask. It is not the production of facemasks that is important; rather that the countries whose citizens more steadfastly wear them that are seeing abating infections who are subsequently in a position revitalize their economies through production and consumption.
Henry James International Management May Market Commentary
In last month’s market commentary we said that we expected a global economic rebound in the second half of 2020, which would continue into and through 2021; that COVID-19 infections and deaths would diminish substantially and that its presence would be all but extinguished in Asia; and that global manufacturing would start to pick up again (particularly in Asia).
Henry James International Management April Market Commentary
Last month we stated that – despite the catastrophic way in which the COVID-19 pandemic has threated and affected life and caused the global economy come to a veritable halt – we believed a sliver of light was becoming faintly visible at the end of the tunnel. While the situation in which Earth’s inhabitants find themselves remains absolutely dire and no less serious today than it was a month ago, we feel that our prediction has largely come true, albeit with a caveat: though the light is visible it remains distant and faint. The month of April displayed evidence of “green shoots” as most major indices posted positive returns. Indeed, the broad based MSCI EAFE index returned 6.29% after posting negative returns in each of the preceding 3 months.